Manteo,
N.C., residents navigate streets that were flooded by Hurricane Irene
in August. Rising tides are likely to mean more frequent coastal
flooding.
About 3.7 million Americans live within a few feet of high tide and risk being hit by more frequent coastal flooding in coming decades because of the sea level rise caused by global warming, according to new research.
If the pace of the rise accelerates as much as expected, researchers
found, coastal flooding at levels that were once exceedingly rare could become an every-few-years occurrence by the middle of this century.
By far the most vulnerable state is Florida, the new analysis found,
with roughly half of the nation’s at-risk population living near the
coast on the porous, low-lying limestone shelf that constitutes much of
that state. But Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey are also
particularly vulnerable, researchers found, and virtually the entire
American coastline is at some degree of risk.
“Sea level rise is like an invisible tsunami, building force while we do
almost nothing,” said Benjamin H. Strauss, an author, with other
scientists, of two new papers outlining the research. “We have a closing
window of time to prevent the worst by preparing for higher seas.”
The project on sea level rise led by Dr. Strauss for the nonprofit
organization Climate Central appears to be the most elaborate effort in
decades to estimate the proportion of the national population at risk
from the rising sea. The papers are scheduled for publication on
Wednesday by the journal Environmental Research Letters.
The work is based on the 2010 census and on improved estimates,
compiled by federal agencies, of the land elevation near coastlines and
of tidal levels throughout the country.
Climate Central, of
Princeton, N.J., was started in 2008 with foundation money to conduct
original climate research and also to inform the public about the work
of other scientists. For the sea level project, financed entirely by
foundations, the group is using the Internet to publish an extensive
package of material that goes beyond the scientific papers, specifying
risks by community.
People can search by ZIP code to get some idea of their own exposure.
While some coastal governments have previously assessed their risk, most
have not, and national-level analyses have also been rare. The new
package of material may therefore give some communities and some
citizens their first solid sense of the threat.
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