Monsoon Withdraws from Punjab, Haryana; Rainfall Deficiency 46%, 39%

As the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Punjab and Haryana, the overall rainfall deficiency in the two States stood at 46 and 39 per cent respectively, while Chandigarh received normal rains between the June-September period.

From June 1-September 26, Punjab had received 266 mm of rains against normal of 488.2, a deficiency of 46 per cent, said Rajinder Singh, a MeT official with the Chandigarh Meteorological Department.

He said neighbouring Haryana had received 277.8 mm of rains during the period against a normal of 454.3 mm, leaving a deficiency of 39 per cent, following the said monsoon’s withdrawal on Tuesday.

The monsoon rain deficiency, which hovered around 70 per cent due to scanty rains in June-July period in the two agrarian states, had improved somewhat after the weather system picked up pace in August, during which Punjab (105.1 mm) and Haryana (161.6 mm) received bulk rains.

Chandigarh, the joint capital of the two states, received 759.7 mm monsoon rains as against normal of 837.7 mm, leaving a deficiency of 9 per cent, which Singh said is considered as normal.

With rain deficiency high in Punjab, the State’s Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal had recently accused the Congress led UPA government for allegedly ignoring the claim of Rs 5,112 crore drought relief for the farmers despite the State having “maximum rain deficiency in the country”.

According to Rajinder Singh, in last year’s monsoon season (June-September), Punjab and Haryana had received 459.3 mm and 374.4 mm of rainfall respectively, and the rains were deficient by 7 per cent and 19 per cent.

thehindubusinessline.com

Stratfor Asia analyst John Minnich discusses the importance of India's monsoon season, not only for the country's farmers, but for the internal political system as well.

Crops in India Wilt in a Weak Monsoon Season

                                                                   Dying young cotton plants in a field southeast of Aurangabad, India.

Vilas Dinkar Mukane lives halfway around the world from the corn farmers of Iowa, but the Indian sharecropper is at risk of losing his livelihood for the same reason: not enough rain.

With the nourishing downpours of the annual monsoon season down an average of 12 percent across India and much more in some regions, farmers in this village about 250 miles east of Mumbai are on the brink of disaster. “If this situation continues, I’ll lose everything,” said Mr. Mukane, whose soybean, sugarcane and cotton crops were visibly stunted and wilting in his fields recently. “Nothing can happen without water.”

Drought has devastated crops around the world this year, including corn and soybeans in the United States, wheat in Russia and Australia and soybeans in Brazil and Argentina. This has contributed to a 6 percent rise in global food prices from June to July, according to United Nations data.

India is experiencing its fourth drought in a dozen years, raising concerns about the reliability of the country’s primary source of fresh water, the monsoon rains that typically fall from June to October.

Some scientists warn that such calamities are part of a trend that is likely to intensify in the coming decades because of climate changes caused by the human release of greenhouse gases.

A paper published last month blamed global warming for a large increase in the percentage of the planet affected by extreme summer heat in the last several decades. And the World Meteorological Organization, a division of the United Nations, recently warnedthat climate change was “projected to increase the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts, with impacts on many sectors, in particular food, water and energy.”

Scientists say that in addition to increasing temperatures, climate change appears to be making India and its neighbors Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh more vulnerable to erratic monsoons.

Studies using 130 years of data show big changes in rainfall in recent decades, said B. N. Goswami, director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, a government-backed research organization. Climate models suggest that while overall rainfall should increase in the coming decades, the region can expect longer dry spells and more intense downpours — forces that would seem to cancel each other out but in fact pose new threats.

“Heavy rains are normally short duration, and therefore the water runs off,” said Dr. Goswami, who added that more research was needed to fully understand the impact of climate change on monsoons. “Weak rains are important for recharging groundwater.”

India is more vulnerable to disruption from drought than countries like the United States. While agriculture accounts for just 15 percent of India’s economy, half of its 1.2 billion people work on farms, and many of its poorest citizens already cannot afford enough food after price increases of 10 percent or more in the last couple of years.

“These kinds of rainfall failures have a lot of human effects,” said Yoginder K. Alagh, chairman of the Institute of Rural Management and a former Indian minister. “A large number of people don’t get employment. There are acute drinking water problems.”

Food grain and oilseed production in India could fall up to 12 percent this year as a result of poor rain, said P. K. Joshi, director for South Asia at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The good news is that the drought is not likely to result in widespread famine. India has more than 76 million tons of wheat, rice and other grain in storage, in part because of government support for those crops and an export ban put in place in 2008 when global food prices shot up. But analysts expect prices for dairy, meat, lentils and vegetables to rise.

Unlike the United States, where crop insurance and other government programs provide a safety net for farmers, India offers ad hoc and unpredictable government support, increasing the risk that legions of farmers will be wiped out.

If it does not rain soon, Mr. Mukane, 25, who works a field here in Muruma, said he would have to sell whatever he could to repay banks and lenders 500,000 rupees (about $9,000), much of it borrowed at an interest rate of 7 percent a month.

Weak monsoon rains were also an underlying cause of the blackouts that cut power to half of the country in July. The paucity of water lowered the supply of power from dams that account for a fifth of electric capacity, even as consumers cranked up fans and air-conditioners and farmers ran electric pumps to draw water from wells. read more@nytimes.com

India’s Climate: Monsoon

     A farmer walks through a dry, cracked paddy-field on the outskirts of Jammu. The monsoon, which usually starts to arrive in June, has barely come at all this year

A looming drought is manageable. Long-term changes to the monsoon might be catastrophic

The dizzying midday heat of India’s northern plains cracks the earth. Farmers slump on the charpoys on which they sleep outdoors. It should be raining, yet the sky is clear. Prithi Singh, lean and wrinkled, says his entire rice crop has withered, along with fields sown for fodder.

After two summers of erratic and delayed monsoons, this year the rains simply failed. Mr Singh cannot afford to pay for a borehole, generator and diesel to reach ever-diminishing groundwater. Farmers always grumble. But Mr Singh has lost half of his annual income of 50,000 rupees ($890) and now depends upon his crop of winter wheat. Another farmer nearby fears he must sell his land to pay accumulated debts to moneylenders.

The monsoon months, June to September, bring three-quarters of India’s annual rainfall. 

Official studies show it to be erratic in four out of every ten years. Yet farmers rarely get any useful warning of shortfalls. As recently as late June, India’s meteorologists were predicting a normal monsoon. Punjab and Haryana, two north-western agricultural states, now say rains are about 70% below average. Six western states have issued drought warnings. The government in Delhi says it may soon offer emergency help.

The country remains predominantly rural: over 600m out of 1.24 billion Indians rely directly on farming. Nearly two-thirds of Indian fields are fed only by rain. A one-off drought is tolerable. Rural job-creation schemes have lifted incomes for the poorest. Food prices have only started to creep up. Granaries are overflowing, thanks to recent bumper crops.

What is disturbing, though, are tentative signs of long-term change to the summer rains. A less stable monsoon pattern would be harder to predict. It would arrive late more often, yield less water, become more sporadic, or dump rain in shorter, more destructive bursts (which happened two years ago in Pakistan, where the Indus basin disastrously flooded). The concerns of experts about the monsoon long predate today’s dry spell.

Too little is known about summer weather systems on the subcontinent. India is short of observation stations, weather planes, satellites, climate scientists and modellers. The government and foreign donors are scrambling to make amends. But even with better data, monsoons are ill-understood once they leave the sea or low-lying land. At altitude, notably, for instance, approaching the Himalayas, it is far trickier to grasp just how factors such as wind direction, air pressure, latent heating and moisture levels interact to deliver monsoon rains.

One trend looks clear: India has grown warmer over the past six decades. Glaciers are melting in the Himalayas, and orchards in the range’s valleys are being planted on ever-higher slopes in search of a temperate climate. Crops in the northern grain belt, notably wheat, are near their maximum tolerance to heat, and so are vulnerable to short-term blasts of higher temperatures. North India’s cities are also growing hotter.

How more warmth affects the monsoon is not straightforward. A land mass heating faster than the oceans will, in theory, draw in more moisture to produce heavier monsoons. Yet the reverse appears to be happening. Specialists who met in February in Pune, in Maharashtra state, reported a 4.5% decline in monsoon rain in the three decades to 2009.

India’s leading climate modeller, R. Krishnan, of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, points to a study showing a “steady decline” in rainfall on the Western Ghats, which run down the west coast. A Japanese model that he has applied to southern India predicts that a still more rapid decline in rainfall is likely.

Such a fall may matter little for states such as Kerala in the south, which gets a monthly drenching of 50 centimetres (20 inches) during the wet season. But Mr Krishnan notes other changes, notably evidence that far fewer depressions have formed in the Bay of Bengal, off India’s east coast, in recent summers. Since these help drive rain to India’s arid northern plains, he concludes that “there is every reason to be concerned about the monsoon.”

Explanations exist for some of this. One theory is that a growing mass of particulates, such as coal dust and biomass (from the widespread use of cow dung as fuel, for instance) in the air above India, now hinders rainfall. Timothy Lenton, a climate scientist at the University of 

Exeter, argues that such pollution could trigger wider instability in the monsoon.

Yet a decline in average rainfall may not be the main worry. Experts who met in Delhi in May to discuss climate-induced “extreme events” in India suggest that likelier threats include more short and devastating downpours and storms, more frequent floods and droughts, longer consecutive dry days within monsoons, more rapid drying of the soil as the land heats, and a greater likelihood that plant and animal diseases might spread.

It does not bode well for farmers, or for crammed cities with poor sewerage and other rotten infrastructure. Slums and coastal cities look especially vulnerable. Mumbai was overwhelmed in 2005 when nearly a metre of rain was dumped on the city in 24 hours.

Such events will happen more often, the highest official in the country’s environment ministry warns. He wants urgently to bring about a big increase in insurance schemes that spread weather-related risks. Rajendra Pachauri, who leads the United Nations’ 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, worries that India is not yet even seriously debating the new threats. He says it is ill-prepared for floods and droughts “that are now considered once-in-every-20-years events, but will be happening once in two years”.

The data harvest

The most pressing need is to gather and analyse data. This month Indian scientists and foreign partners launched a five-year “monsoon mission” to develop climate models for the region. India’s government is beginning to act, by setting up new Doppler radar stations to track weather systems over mountains. It is launching a new plane to fly into cyclones to study their behaviour. Better still, India and its neighbours could start sharing weather data, comparing ground and satellite observations, for example.

More can be done elsewhere, too. Most obviously, even the poorest farmers could work together better to store rainwater, for instance in ponds and tanks, rather than praying for the skies to open. The share of India’s farmland that is irrigated could roughly double, officials say. Huge scope exists to reduce losses through evaporation and leakage from shoddy irrigation systems.

More sophisticated farmers are getting better informed. One Indian firm, Weather Risk, sells forecasts to some 75,000 subscribers, mostly farmers across 15 states. Each pays just 30 rupees a month for the information the firm supplies. It looks worthwhile. Sonu Agrawal of Weather Risk notes growing demand for detail on highly localised conditions and short-term rain and hail forecasts. Demand for crop insurance is also rising.

Mr Agrawal and others remain sanguine about today’s dry patch, calling it typical of the sort of droughts that often show up in historic data stored by insurance firms. But given great gaps in knowledge about the monsoon, and uncertainties over climate change, the need for more accurate and complete data seems pressing. Studying the late rains this year will not help Prithi Singh and his parched plot today. But clarifying which, if any, trend poses the greatest threats to farmers like him could turn out to be one of India’s most important tasks.

The Economist 

Monsoon rains pick up afresh in central India 

Monsoon rains have picked up in strength over the hilly regions (not plains) of northwest India and parts of central India.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that rains were reported from Orissa, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

 

HEAVY RAIN

A weather warning valid for the next two days said that heavy rainfall may occur at one or two places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. The alert is valid for a single day (Tuesday) for East Rajasthan, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh.

An extended outlook valid until Friday said that thundershowers would lash many places over the western Himalayan region, Uttar Pradesh, the west coast, east and north-east India. The rains are expected to be subdued over south interior peninsular India. Meanwhile, the cumulative rain deficit for the country as a whole stayed at 21 per cent as on Saturday.

 

DEFICIT AT 21%

North-west India (-39 per cent) and the peninsula (-22 per cent) continued to be the worst hit. East and north-east India too has fallen back to double-digit figures (-10 per cent). Central India, which has come under a few of the latest surges of rain, has brought down the deficit to 20 per cent.

More rains have been forecast for the region over the next few days, to the near-total exclusion of both north-west India and interior peninsula.

The west coast, as usual, could be the sole exception. Scattered showers are also likely for the state of Gujarat, says an outlook by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction. 

The Hindu Business Line 

Indian Scientists Try to Crack Monsoon Source Code

    Scientists aided by supercomputers are trying to unravel one of biggest mysteries -- the monsoon vagaries - Agencies

Scientists aided by supercomputers are trying to unravel one of Mother Nature's biggest mysteries -- the vagaries of the summer monsoon rains that bring life, and sometimes death, to India every year.

In a first-of-its-kind project, Indian scientists aim to build computer models that would allow them to make a quantum leap in predicting the erratic movements of the monsoon.

If successful, the impact would be life-changing in a country where 600 million people depend on farming for their livelihoods and where agriculture contributes 15 percent to the economy. The monsoon has been dubbed by some as India's 'real finance minister'.

"Ultimately it's all about water. Everybody needs water and whatever amount of water you get here is mainly through rainfall," said Shailesh Nayak, secretary of the Earth Sciences Ministry.

India typically receives 75 per cent of its annual rain from the June-September monsoon as moisture-laden winds sweep in from the southwest of the peninsula.

The importance of the recently launched five-year 'monsoon mission' has been underscored by this summer's patchy and below-average rains, which have provoked much anxious sky-watching and fears of drought in India's northwest, even as floods in the northeast displaced 2 million people and killed more than 100.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar cautioned this week that there was no need for alarm just yet, although he fretted that the monsoon was 'playing hide-and-seek'.

Working with counterparts in the United States and Britain, Indian scientists are trying to crack the monsoon's 'source code' using super-fast computers to build the world's first short-range and long-range computer models that can give much more granular information about the monsoon's movements.

This would help India conserve depleting water resources and agricultural output would get a boost as farmers would be able to plan their crops better.

Armed with more precise forecasts, state governments would be better prepared, in theory, for disasters such as the recent floods in Assam.

It would also bring more certainty to economic policy-making. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government is gambling on a normal monsoon this year to boost weak economic growth.

Weather forecasting, however, is just one of the challenges facing India's agricultural sector. Water conservation and proper irrigation remain a problem, agricultural policy-making is muddled and the government is under pressure to cut expensive diesel subsidies, which mostly benefit richer farmers.

EXTENDING SHORT-TERM FORECASTS

More than half of the arable land in India, one of the world's biggest producers of cotton, rice, sugar and wheat, is rain-fed. A successful monsoon means rural residents have more money to spend on everything from motorcycles to refrigerators.

"We do feel under a lot of pressure," said S.C. Bhan, senior scientist at the India Meteorological Office (IMD), when asked about the challenges the IMD faces in trying to correctly predict the monsoon's movements.

The weather office publishes a forecast in April predicting how much rain will fall over the four months and whether the monsoon will be "normal". It does this by comparing sea temperatures, wind speeds and air pressure with data from the past 50 years.

In June, the forecast is updated to give monthly rainfall figures for July and August -- the main growing months -- as well as seasonal figures for four broad regions.

Despite advances in computer weather models, the statistical model remains the most accurate long-range forecaster of monsoon rains, Bhan said. But only up to a point.

Many of the weather office's long-range summer monsoon predictions last year were inaccurate. It also struggled to predict extreme weather events such as the drought in 2009 -- a year when it had forecast normal monsoon rains.

There is a lot the IMD struggles to predict -- when the rains will arrive throughout the country, where exactly they will fall, which parts will receive the most and how long they will last. Short-range forecasts give more precision but offer only a five- to seven-day window into the future, which farmers say is too short.

The monsoon mission aims to extend those short-term forecasts to at least 15 days and enable the weather office to give much more detailed seasonal projections.

"If anybody can tell me there is going to be a dry spell after initial showers that will make a lot of difference for me. It means life or death for farmers," said P. Chengal Reddy, leader of a national consortium of farmers' associations.

Several farmers in Maharashtra state, already at the end of their tether and deeply in debt after buying fertiliser and seeds, reportedly killed themselves last month after rains abruptly stopped, farmers' rights activist Kishor Tiwari said.

Many farmers ignore the weather forecasts and rely instead on Hindu astronomical almanacs and signs in nature.

"We were able to guess from the nature of the croaking of frogs if there would be any rain in the near future," said Trilocha Pradhan, 63, who farms about seven acres of rice paddy in the mostly agricultural state of Odisha.

"Such croaking is rare today," he added, blaming the effects of climate change.

Reuters

Weakest Monsoon Since 2009 to Shrink India Rice Harvest

Rice planting in India dropped 19 percent to 9.68 million hectares (24 million acres) this year from 12.04 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said July 13. Photographer: Kuni Takahashi/Bloomberg

The rice harvest in India, the world’s second-biggest producer, is set to drop from an all-time high as the weakest monsoon in three years slows planting, potentially boosting global prices. Futures climbed for the first time in four days.

“It will be difficult to match last year’s record rice production,” said Samarendu Mohanty, a senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute in Manila. Output was 104.3 million tons in the year ended June 30.

A 22 percent shortfall in monsoon rains delayed sowing of crops from rice to cotton, stoking a rally in commodity prices and threatening to accelerate India’s inflation that exceeded 7 percent for a fifth straight month in June. Dry weather from the U.S. to Australia has parched fields, pushing up corn, wheat and soybean prices on concern global supplies will be curbed. Costly rice, staple for half the world, may increase global food prices forecast by the United Nations to advance this month.

“The whole grains complex of wheat, corns, soybeans are forcing rice prices higher as well,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity- markets newsletter in Sydney. “Indian production is very important for the market.”

Rice planting in India dropped 10 percent to 14.5 million hectares (35.8 million acres) this year from 16.1 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said today. The country is estimated to export 8 million tons of rice in 2011-2012, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, accounting for about 25 percent of the global trade.

FAO Forecast

World grain production will be lower in 2012 than expected a month ago, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said July 5. Farmers across the world will harvest 2.4 billion tons of grain this year, 23 million tons less than forecast on June 7, it said. A drop in the Indian harvest “will have an impact on global prices” this year, Mohanty said in an e-mail.

Rice for September delivery rose 1 percent to $15.65 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade by 4:50 p.m. in Mumbai. Futures, which reached a two-month high of $15.765 on July 16, have advanced 5.3 percent this year.

A smaller Indian crop and potential curbs on exports may help Thailand, the world’s biggest shipper, boost sales, rice institute’s Mohanty said.

Thailand’s government has bought 9.5 million tons of unmilled rice from farmers between March 1 and July 9 under a state purchase program, the ministry of commerce said July 10.

Export Review

India will review its farm-good export rules after 15 days and consider setting limits on food crops that traders can stockpile to check a rally in prices of oilseeds and grain, Food Minister K.V. Thomas said July 18.

“With the monsoon playing hide and seek, it is a challenge for our farmers and scientists to maintain the food-grain output achieved in last two years,” Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said July 16 in New Delhi. The country won’t ban exports of rice and wheat as it has ample stockpiles, he said.

Monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, is the worst since 2009 when showers were 22 percent less than a 50-year average. Rainfall in July, the wettest month in the June-September rainy season, may miss a June forecast for a normal rain, L.S. Rathore, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said July 16.

Food-grain production reached a record 257.44 million tons in the year ended June 30 after a second year of normal rains boosted harvests, the farm ministry said July 17. That prompted the government to lift curbs on exports of the grains last year. Non-basmati shipments totaled 5.25 million tons since September, according to the food ministry.

‘Happy Situation’

State reserves of rice are more than double the amount required to run welfare programs and emergencies and the government should take advantage of the price-rally to boost exports, said Atul Chaturvedi, chief executive of Adani Wilmar Ltd. Rice inventory was 30.7 million tons, compared with 26.9 million tons a year earlier, government data showed.

“In this scenario of rising prices, India is actually in a happy situation,” Chaturvedi said. “India should sell more rice and wheat in the global market to benefit from the rally in prices. The government should not ban exports.”

More than 235 million farmers depend on the monsoon for crops such as rice, peanuts, soybean and cotton. Sowing of monsoon crops begins in June and harvesting starts in September.

By Pratik Parija@Bloomberg Businessweek

India's Monsoon Revives, Drought Fears Diminish

Sharp increase in rainfall allays drought fears

* Monsoon covers entire country four days ahead of usual date

* Deficit from June 1-July 11 narrows to 22 percent

India's monsoon rains were above average in the past week for the first time in the current season, the weather office said, as the downpours resumed after a worrying fortnight-long pause over the central part of the country.

The annual rains are crucial for farm output and economic growth as about 55 percent of the South Asian nation's arable land is rain-fed. The farm sector accounts for about 15 percent of a nearly $2-trillion economy, Asia's third-biggest.

Rains were 1 percent above average for the week ended July 11, a sharp improvement from 49 percent below average in the previous week - allaying fears of a drought, which would hit output of food crops in the major consumer and producer.

Rapid progress of monsoon rains over the grain bowl of northwest India helped cover the entire country four days ahead of the usual date of July 15 although weather officials have cautioned it could remain weak until next week.

"The monsoon scenario is not as bad as has been painted," Food Minister K.V. Thomas told Reuters.

Farm Minister Sharad Pawar had already said on Wednesday the rains had improved, speeding the sowing of major summer crops such as rice and cotton.

Rains had been 30 percent below average from June 1 to July 4 and now that deficit has narrowed to 22 percent below average.

Weather officials said the monsoon rains would be above average over the hilly regions of the north and northeast over the next three days, helping to fill reservoirs, but would decrease over northern states such as Punjab and Haryana in the grain bowl of India early next week.


CROP SCENE

The revival of rains over central India increased the pace of soybean planting, which is now almost 80 percent complete in Madhya Pradesh, the main producing state for the oilseed, an industry official said.

"Rains are needed even in the next week to complete the sowing operations," said Rajesh Agrawal, spokesman for the Soybean Processors' Association of India said.

Soybean is the main oilseed crop for India, the world's biggest importer of cooking oils and also a major supplier of soymeal to nations such as Iran, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, and Thailand.

By July 6, soybean had been planted in 1.9 million hectares, more than the normal area, according to preliminary farm ministry data. A further update will be issued on Friday.

Thomas said the planting scenario for rice and cane was also "good." India also has huge stockpiles of rice after three years of bumper harvests. By July 1, government rice stocks were 30.7 million tonnes, much higher than the 9.8 million tonnes targeted for the quarter to end-September.

But concerns remain for cereals in some rain-fed areas of the western state of Maharashtra and southern Karnataka. Cereals had been planted on 2.19 million hectares by July 6 compared with normal acreage of 5.66 million hectares.

"It is true that the rains are late in some areas where farmers have been advised to sow short-duration, high-yielding seed varieties," Thomas said.

Rains were also weak in cane-growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka in the past week, while cane-growing areas of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh received above average rains.

"Cane crop is mainly grown in irrigated areas and it can withstand any temporary lull in the monsoon," said A.K. Singh, deputy director-general of the state-run Indian Council of Agricultural Research.

But any long dry spell could affect the sugar yield of the cane crop, as happened in 2009 when India had to import from international markets, pushing prices to 30-year highs.

India's weather office is sticking to its forecast for an average monsoon this year, even factoring in the effect of an El Nino weather pattern.

El Nino causes a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that can trigger droughts or heavy rain in Asia.

L.S. Rathore, chief of the India Meteorological Department, said on Wednesday the weather pattern was unlikely to develop before mid-August, or after farmers had finished planting most of their summer crop. 

By Ratnajyoti Dutta@Reuters India

India's Monsoon Season Is Starting To Look Like A Disaster

India's monsoon is 30 percent behind average and analysts are getting worried.

Jefferies' Arya Sen warns that a sub-par monsoon could add to growth and inflation concenrs:

With FY13 GDP growth forecasts for India already at 5-6.5% for most on the street, a poor monsoon and its direct and indirect impacts could pose further risk to GDP growth. In the last decade, in the poor monsoon years of FY03 (-19%), FY05 (-14%) and FY10 (-22%), agricultural GDP growth has been -6.6%, 0.2% and 1.0% respectively against median growth of 3.5%. In FY12 agriculture contributed 14% to India's overall real GDP. The indirect impact could take various forms such as weaker rural demand and lower hydroelectric power production. A poor monsoon could also further drive up India's already high food and overall inflation with implications for RBI's decision making. Food items account for 24% in the WPI basket.

At least India's grain reserves may be high enough to avoid a food crisis, Sen says.

India has already been described as the weakest BRIC.

The monsoon—aka the real finance minister of India—lasts from mid-May to late-October, and it can recover from a bad June, but it is unlikely to recover from a bad July, Sen says. Better watch those weather maps.

Business Insider 

42 Per Cent Overall Deficit as Monsoon Stalls Again

Thiruvananthapuram, June 14: 

The monsoon seems to have stumbled on an expected bump, the second such since the delayed onset, seriously hampering its progress.

It has totted up a deficit of 50 per cent during the week ending June 13, on top of the 36 per cent it had returned during its first week.

The overall deficit as on date is 42 per cent.

It would be at least another week until things can hopefully be reversed; and that too provided latest northwest Pacific typhoon ‘Guchol’ behaves.

This is the third time during this short season that the monsoon is being dictated terms by ‘away-cyclones’ – two in northwest Pacific and one in south Indian Ocean.

‘Guchol’ is forecast to intensify another round by Sunday, but latest assessment also says that it may start weakening the very next day.

This might leave monsoon a window of opportunity to get its act together; this is exactly what India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects will happen.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting too sees possibility of a conventional low-pressure area spinning up over northwest Bay of Bengal.

All things remaining same, this ‘low’ should be able to drive the monsoon into the sub-baked and parched Andhra Pradesh-Orissa region.

It is not yet known how far the ‘low’ would penetrate the land. One or two forecasts saw a rain head moving west over Andhra Pradesh into central India.

Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon failed to consolidate on the little progress it managed to achieve on Thursday after emerging from a week-long deadlock.

This seemed to confirm the second lull phase it had driven itself into with typhoon ‘Guchol’ calling the shots in the northwest Pacific.

The IMD said conditions would become favourable for further advance of monsoon into central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Tamil Nadu over the next four days.

Rains may manage to filter into parts of interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Bay of Bengal and some parts of Andhra Pradesh also during this phase.

The next push into east India – West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh – is expected to happen over the subsequent three days only. 

Thiruvananthapuram, June 16: 

The monsoon has managed to break out of the latest brief deadlock, the second after it made a delayed onset.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update just this afternoon that the western end of the northern limit stayed pinned down to Harnai.

The line of coverage has since made some progress towards the east of the peninsula, bringing more parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh under its footprint.

Thus, the monsoon advanced into more parts of Madhya Maharashtra; most parts of Karnataka and Rayalaseema; parts of Telangana and entire Tamil Nadu.

Some parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, most parts of west central Bay of Bengal and some more parts of northwest Bay of Bengal too have been brought under coverage.

The northern limit passed through Harnai, Bidar, Mehbubnagar, Baptala and Gangtok.

The IMD said conditions are also favourable for its further advance into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, Konkan and interior Karnataka during the next three days.

More parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa and entire Bay of Bengal would also see monsoon set in during this period.

During the 24 hours ending this morning, the monsoon has been vigorous over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and active over Assam, Meghalaya and Kerala.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Guchol, the latest monsoon tormentor raging in the northwest Pacific, is now expected to intensify as a super typhoon as early as tomorrow.

It has already ratcheted up to category-3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale that classifies storms to a class-topping category-5 in terms of intensity.

All forecast models now agree that ‘Guchol’ would peak to category-4 strength (super typhoon) by tomorrow.

It is headed for central Japan with capital Tokyo in its line of sight, but would have weakened into category-2 by Monday when it strikes the metropolis or neigbourhood, forecasts suggest.

‘Guchol’s’ peaking intensity and power means incremental moisture that would normally go to feed the Indian monsoon would be spirited away across the equator into the typhoon.

The sweep of the flows generated by Guchol’s brute strength would not allow any intervening circulations to drop anchor in the Bay of Bengal and steer the monsoon flows towards east India.

Such a system could hopefully develop only on weakening of the typhoon; in fact one such is expected to shape early next week.

And that is the earliest window of opportunity for the monsoon to entrench presence in the northwest Bay of Bengal and onward into the east and east-central regions of India.

Till such time, the monsoon is expected to be present along the west coast and the northeast of India where it has already made its onset. 

The Hindu Business Line 

2 million Displaced from Homes as Monsoon Floods Kill 81 in India’s Northeastern Assam State

The worst monsoon floods in a decade to hit a remote northeastern Indian state have killed more than 80 people and forced around 2 million to leave their homes, officials said Monday.

Nearly half a million people are living in relief camps that have been set up across Assam state, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told journalists in Gauhati, Assam’s capital. The rest of the 2 million displaced have moved in with relatives or are living in the open, sheltering under tarpaulin sheets.

Assam officials say 81 people have been killed over the past four days. Most of them were swept away when the mighty Brahmaputra River overflowed its banks and flooded villages. Sixteen people were buried in landslides triggered by the rains.

At least 11 people were missing in six districts, the state disaster management agency said in its bulletin.

Air force helicopters were dropping food packets and drinking water to marooned people, Singh said after surveying the flood-hit districts.

Army soldiers used boats to rescue villagers from rooftops of flooded homes.

Teams of doctors have opened health clinics in the 770 relief camps that had been set up across Assam, one of India’s main tea-growing states. The hilly tea growing areas have not been affected, but lower rice fields have been washed away.

Thousands of cattle have perished after being swept away by the raging water or getting stuck in the mud. The stench of rotting animal carcasses was adding to the woes of the people in tents at the relief camps, officials said.

In the worst-hit Dhemaji district, raging waters of the Brahmaputra River swept away entire villages.

Officials said the entire Majuli island, one of the world’s largest river islands, was awash as water levels in the Brahmaputra rose above the danger level.

“This is one of the worst floods to hit Assam,” Singh said. He announced the national government would give immediate assistance of 5 billion rupees ($90 million) to the state.

Railway workers were working round the clock to restore train services disrupted after railway tracks became submerged in flood water.

“Restoration of the railway line is a priority,” Singh said.

Officials say the situation was expected to improve over the next few days as the rain was tapering off and water levels were beginning to recede.

Monsoon floods hit Assam, with a population of 26 million people, almost every year, with heavy rains swelling the Brahmaputra and its innumerable tributaries that crisscross the state.

Washington Post. World  via Associated Press

Flood Death Toll Rises to 62 in India's Northeast

The death toll from monsoon rains in northeastern India has risen above 60, with more than 2,000 villages inundated as rivers breached their banks, an official said Sunday.

More than a week of heavy rains in Assam state has caused the massive Brahmaputra river – one of Asia's largest – to exceed danger levels. Smaller rivers have also overflown their banks.

Floods and landslides have killed 62 people, Assam's agriculture minister Nilomoni Sen Deka said.

Deka said the disaster has affected about 2 million people.

The state's disaster management authority said thousands of homes have been destroyed and more than 480,000 people have sought shelter in government-run relief camps.

There was no rain Sunday in most parts of the state but thunderstorms were forecast over the next 24 hours.

The monsoon season in India begins in June and ends in September.

Assam suffers flooding almost every year but this year's disaster is the worst in at least a decade.

Raging floodwaters fed by monsoon rains have inundated more than 2,000 villages in northeast India, sweeping away homes and leaving hundreds of thousands of people marooned Friday. At least 27 people were killed, but the toll was expected to rise.

The Indian air force was delivering food packages to people huddled on patches of dry land along with cattle and wild elephants. Rescuers were dropped by helicopter into affected areas to help the stranded, but pouring rain was complicating operations.

About 1 million people have had to evacuate their homes as the floods from the swollen Brahmaputra River – one of Asia's largest – swamped 2,084 villages across most of Assam state, officials said.

Assam's flooded capital of Gauhati was hit by mudslides that buried three people. Many of the city's 2 million residents were negotiating the submerged streets in rubber dinghies and small wooden boats. Most businesses were closed.

Officials have counted 27 people dead so far, but the toll is expected to be much higher as unconfirmed casualty reports mount. Many of the victims so far have drowned, including five people whose boat capsized amid choppy waves.

Telephone lines were knocked out and some train services were canceled after their tracks were swamped by mud. As the floods soaked the Kaziranga game reserve east of Gauhati, motorists reported seeing a one-horned rhino fleeing along a busy highway.

"We never thought the situation would turn this grim when the monsoon-fed rivers swelled a week ago," said Nilomoni Sen Deka, an Assam government minister.

Residents of Majuli – an 800-square-kilometer (310-square-mile) island in the middle of the Brahmaputra River – watched helplessly as the swirling, gray waters swallowed 50 villages and swept away their homes.

"We are left with only the clothes we are wearing," said 60-year-old Puniram Hazarika, one of about 75,000 island residents now camping in makeshift shelters of bamboo sticks and plastic tarps on top of a mud embankment soaked by rain.

Ratna Payeng, who was sheltering with her three small children in the camps, said she was praying for the rains to stop.

"If they don't, our land will become unfit for cultivation and everything will be lost," Payeng said.

Nearby, a herd of 70 endangered Asiatic elephants, which usually avoid humans, were grouped together, Majuli island wildlife official Atul Das said. "The jumbos have not caused any harm, but we are keeping a close watch," he said.

In neighboring Nepal, landslides also triggered by monsoon rains killed at least eight people Thursday night and left two others missing.

By Wasbir Hussain@Huffington Post World

Monsoon's Impact on Indian Economy

An average or normal monsoon means rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres during a four-month season from June, India's weather office says. Rainfall below 90 percent of the average is considered a drought.

ARRIVAL

The monsoon season starts with the arrival of the rains on the southern Kerala coast around June 1. Its progress triggers planting of summer crops.

PROGRESS

After hitting the south coast, it takes about a week to cover the coffee, tea and rubber growing areas of south India. It spreads to the rice areas of eastern parts in the first 10 days. It usually covers half of the country in the first fortnight and enters the oilseed-producing areas of central India in the third week of June. Cotton areas in the western region get rains by the first week of July. It covers entire country by mid-July.

Half of India's farm output comes from crops planted during the first half of the June-September season.

Here are some facts on the monsoon and its impact:

CROPS

RICE -- Farmers sow paddy at the start of the monsoon in June and the key areas are in the east and south. The crop is heavily dependent on rains for irrigation.

A bumper harvest last year led the government to lift a four year ban on exports and rainfall within the average will erase any chance of a return of the export ban for the world's second largest producer of the grain after China.

SUGARCANE: An average monsoon will help the world's top sugar producer after Brazil to keep its free export policy on sugar in the new season from October 1.

OTHERS: Corn, lentils, oilseeds and cotton -- important crops in western and central India -- have some dependency on the seasonal rains. India remains a net importer of lentils and cooking oils and domestic output can alter overseas purchases. An average rainfall could allow the world's second biggest producer of cotton continue with its free policy on overseas sale.

ECONOMY AND MARKETS

-- The monsoon rains are vital for farm output and economic growth in India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton. Farm sector shares for about 15 percent of India's nearly $2 trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.

-- India is largely self-sufficient in major foodgrains such as rice and wheat, but drought can send the country to global markets. In 2009, India had to import sugar, sending global prices to record highs and pushing up inflation.

- Higher farm output would rein in food prices and help the government to take steps to cut the fiscal deficit and farm subsidies. India's food inflation rose to 10.66 per cent in May from 10.18 per cent in April, latest figures show.

-- A stronger economic outlook can lift sentiment in equity markets, mainly of companies selling products in rural areas, including consumer goods and automobiles.

-- Monsoon rains impact demand for gold in India, the world's top consumer of the metal, as purchases get a boost when farming incomes rise amid high crop output.

IRRIGATION, POWER

-- Monsoon rains replenish reservoirs and lift ground-water levels, allowing better irrigation and more hydropower output.

-- Higher rainfall can cut demand for subsidized diesel, which is used to pump water from wells for irrigation and makes up for about 40 percent of India's oil products demand.

Reuters 

In the heights of summer, the last thing that you want to encounter is a shortage of water. But sadly that is exactly the situation that most people across the country are facing on a regular basis. Now the prospect of a delayed monsoon, is likely to make the supply of water to states like Delhi and Haryana a lot worse. And facing the brunt of this, are the hapless farmers.