An average or normal monsoon means rainfall between 96 and 104
percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres during a four-month
season from June, India's weather office says. Rainfall below 90 percent
of the average is considered a drought.
ARRIVAL
The monsoon season starts with the arrival of the rains on the
southern Kerala coast around June 1. Its progress triggers planting of
summer crops.
PROGRESS
After hitting the south coast, it takes about a week to cover the
coffee, tea and rubber growing areas of south India. It spreads to the
rice areas of eastern parts in the first 10 days. It usually covers half
of the country in the first fortnight and enters the oilseed-producing
areas of central India in the third week of June. Cotton areas in the
western region get rains by the first week of July. It covers entire
country by mid-July.
Half of India's farm output comes from crops planted during the first half of the June-September season.
Here are some facts on the monsoon and its impact:
CROPS
RICE -- Farmers sow paddy at the start of the monsoon in June and the
key areas are in the east and south. The crop is heavily dependent on
rains for irrigation.
A bumper harvest last year led the government to lift a four year ban
on exports and rainfall within the average will erase any chance of a
return of the export ban for the world's second largest producer of the
grain after China.
SUGARCANE: An average monsoon will help the world's top sugar
producer after Brazil to keep its free export policy on sugar in the new
season from October 1.
OTHERS: Corn, lentils, oilseeds and cotton -- important crops in
western and central India -- have some dependency on the seasonal rains.
India remains a net importer of lentils and cooking oils and domestic
output can alter overseas purchases. An average rainfall could allow the
world's second biggest producer of cotton continue with its free policy
on overseas sale.
ECONOMY AND MARKETS
-- The monsoon rains are vital for farm output and economic growth in
India, the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and
cotton. Farm sector shares for about 15 percent of India's nearly $2
trillion economy, Asia's third biggest.
-- India is largely self-sufficient in major foodgrains such as rice
and wheat, but drought can send the country to global markets. In 2009,
India had to import sugar, sending global prices to record highs and
pushing up inflation.
- Higher farm output would rein in food prices and help the
government to take steps to cut the fiscal deficit and farm subsidies.
India's food inflation rose to 10.66 per cent in May from 10.18 per cent
in April, latest figures show.
-- A stronger economic outlook can lift sentiment in equity markets,
mainly of companies selling products in rural areas, including consumer
goods and automobiles.
-- Monsoon rains impact demand for gold in India, the world's top
consumer of the metal, as purchases get a boost when farming incomes
rise amid high crop output.
IRRIGATION, POWER
-- Monsoon rains replenish reservoirs and lift ground-water levels, allowing better irrigation and more hydropower output.
-- Higher rainfall can cut demand for subsidized diesel, which is
used to pump water from wells for irrigation and makes up for about 40
percent of India's oil products demand.
In the heights of summer, the last thing that you want to encounter is a
shortage of water. But sadly that is exactly the situation that most
people across the country are facing on a regular basis. Now the
prospect of a delayed monsoon, is likely to make the supply of water to
states like Delhi and Haryana a lot worse. And facing the brunt of this,
are the hapless farmers.
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