2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers, launched by the Club of Rome on May 7,
raises the possibility that humankind might not survive on the planet
if it continues on its path of over-consumption and short-termism.
In the Report author Jorgen Randers raises essential questions: How
many people will the planet be able to support? Will the belief in
endless growth crumble? Will runaway climate change take hold? Where
will quality of life improve, and where will it decline? Using
painstaking research, and drawing on contributions from more than 30
thinkers in the field, he concludes that:
- While the process of adapting humanity to the planet’s limitations has started, the human response could be too slow.
- The current dominant global economies, particularly the United States, will stagnate. Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies (referred to as ‘BRISE’ in the Report) will progress.
- But there will still be 3 billion poor in 2052.
- China will be a success story, because of its ability to act.
- Global population will peak in 2042, because of falling fertility in urban areas
- Global GDP will grow much slower than expected, because of slower productivity growth in mature economies.
- CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow and cause +2°C in 2052; temperatures will reach +2.8°C in 2080, which may well trigger self-reinforcing climate change.
The Report says the main cause of future problems is the excessively
short-term predominant political and economic model. “We need a system
of governance that takes a more long-term view”, said Professor Randers,
speaking in Rotterdam. “It is unlikely that governments will pass
necessary regulation to force the markets to allocate more money into
climate friendly solutions, and must not assume that markets will work
for the benefit of humankind”.
“We already live in a manner that cannot be continued for generations
without major change. Humanity has overshot the earth’s resources, and
in some cases we will see local collapse before 2052 – we are emitting
twice as much greenhouse gas every year as can be absorbed by the
world’s forests and oceans.”
The launch was organised by the Club of Rome, the international
think-tank that focuses on stimulating debate on achieving a sustainable
future. The Club is continuing its tradition of supporting work that
raises fundamental questions and promotes far-sighted solutions. The
launch takes place on the eve of an international meeting of WWF, the
international environmental organisation.
Published in the run-up to the Rio Summit, this Report to the Club of Rome: 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (published by US publishers Chelsea Green) looks at issues first raised in The Limits to Growth,
40 years ago. This earlier Report, also to the Club of Rome, of which
Randers was a co-author, created shock waves by questioning the ideal of
permanent growth.
Commenting on the findings of 2052, Ian Johnson, Club of
Rome Secretary General said: “Professor Randers’ analysis of where the
world could be in 40 years has demonstrated that ‘Business as usual’ is
not an option if we want our grand-children to live in a sustainable and
equitable planet. It took 40 years before the full message of The Limits to Growth was properly understood. We cannot afford any more lost decades.”
The launch of 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is part of a broader 18-month campaign by the Club of Rome: 2052: the world in 40 years to stimulate ideas on future options to shape the world in a sustainable way, taking its context from The Limits to Growth
Report. The Club of Rome is a global think-tank, composed of individual
members and over 30 National Associations. Its mission is to undertake
forward-looking analysis and assessment on ways forward to a happier,
more resilient and sustainable planet. For more information: www.clubofrome.org
No comments:
Post a Comment