More than 1 in 3 counties in the United States could face a "high" or
"extreme" risk of water shortages due to climate change by the middle of
the 21st century, according to a new study in ACS's Journal of Environmental Science & Technology.
The new report concluded that 7 in 10 of the more than 3,100 U.S.
counties could face "some" risk of shortages of fresh water for
drinking, farming and other uses. It includes maps that identify the
counties at risk of shortages.
In the analysis, Sujoy B. Roy, Ph.D., and colleagues explain that
population growth is expected to increase the demand for water for
municipal use and for electricity generation beyond existing levels.
Global climate change threatens to reduce water supplies due to
decreased rainfall and other factors compared to levels in the 20th
century. Roy's group developed a "water supply sustainability risk
index" that takes into account water withdrawal, projected growth,
susceptibility to drought, projected climate change and other factors in
individual U.S. counties for the year 2050. It takes into account
renewable water supply through precipitation using the most recent
downscaled climate change projections and estimates future withdrawals
for various human uses.
Roy's team used the index to conclude that climate change could
foster an "extreme" risk of water shortages that may develop in 412
counties in southern and southwestern states and in southern Great
Plains states. "This is not intended as a prediction that water
shortages will occur, but rather where they are more likely to occur,
and where there might be greater pressure on public officials and water
users to better characterize, and creatively manage demand and supply,"
Roy said.
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