Ecosystems and their wildlife communities are not static; they change
and evolve over time due to numerous intrinsic and extrinsic factors. A
period of rapid change is occurring in the Arctic for which our current
understanding of potential ecosystem and wildlife responses is limited.
Changes to the physical environment include warming temperatures,
diminishing sea ice, increasing coastal erosion, deteriorating
permafrost, and changing water regimes. These changes influence
biological communities and the ways in which human communities interact
with them. Through the new initiative Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE)
the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strives to (1) understand the
potential suite of wildlife population responses to these physical
changes to inform key resource management decisions such as those
related to the Endangered Species Act, and (2) provide unique insights
into how Arctic ecosystems are responding under new stressors. Our
studies examine how and why changes in the ice-dominated ecosystems of
the Arctic are affecting wildlife and will provide a better foundation
for understanding the degree and manner in which wildlife species
respond and adapt to rapid environmental change. Changes to Arctic
ecosystems will be felt broadly because the Arctic is a production zone
for hundreds of species that migrate south for the winter.
The CAE initiative includes three major research themes that span
Arctic ice-dominated ecosystems and that are structured to identify and
understand the linkages between physical processes, ecosystems, and
wildlife populations. The USGS is applying knowledge-based modeling
structures such as Bayesian Networks to integrate the work.
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