Thiruvananthapuram, June 14:
The monsoon seems to have stumbled on an expected bump, the second such
since the delayed onset, seriously hampering its progress.
It has totted up a deficit of 50 per cent during the week ending June
13, on top of the 36 per cent it had returned during its first week.
The overall deficit as on date is 42 per cent.
It would be at least another week until things can hopefully be
reversed; and that too provided latest northwest Pacific typhoon
‘Guchol’ behaves.
This is the third time during this short season that the monsoon is
being dictated terms by ‘away-cyclones’ – two in northwest Pacific and
one in south Indian Ocean.
‘Guchol’ is forecast to intensify another round by Sunday, but latest
assessment also says that it may start weakening the very next day.
This might leave monsoon a window of opportunity to get its act
together; this is exactly what India Meteorological Department (IMD)
expects will happen.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting too sees
possibility of a conventional low-pressure area spinning up over
northwest Bay of Bengal.
All things remaining same, this ‘low’ should be able to drive the
monsoon into the sub-baked and parched Andhra Pradesh-Orissa region.
It is not yet known how far the ‘low’ would penetrate the land. One or
two forecasts saw a rain head moving west over Andhra Pradesh into
central India.
Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon failed to consolidate on the
little progress it managed to achieve on Thursday after emerging from a
week-long deadlock.
This seemed to confirm the second lull phase it had driven itself into
with typhoon ‘Guchol’ calling the shots in the northwest Pacific.
The IMD said conditions would become favourable for further advance of
monsoon into central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Tamil Nadu over the next
four days.
Rains may manage to filter into parts of interior Maharashtra, interior
Karnataka and Bay of Bengal and some parts of Andhra Pradesh also during
this phase.
The next push into east India – West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand
and Chhattisgarh – is expected to happen over the subsequent three days
only.
Thiruvananthapuram, June 16:
The monsoon has managed to break out of the latest brief deadlock, the second after it made a delayed onset.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update just this
afternoon that the western end of the northern limit stayed pinned down
to Harnai.
The line of coverage has since made some progress towards the east of
the peninsula, bringing more parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra
Pradesh under its footprint.
Thus, the monsoon advanced into more parts of Madhya Maharashtra; most
parts of Karnataka and Rayalaseema; parts of Telangana and entire Tamil
Nadu.
Some parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, most parts of west central Bay of
Bengal and some more parts of northwest Bay of Bengal too have been
brought under coverage.
The northern limit passed through Harnai, Bidar, Mehbubnagar, Baptala and Gangtok.
The IMD said conditions are also favourable for its further advance into
remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, Konkan and interior Karnataka
during the next three days.
More parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Andhra Pradesh, West
Bengal, Orissa and entire Bay of Bengal would also see monsoon set in
during this period.
During the 24 hours ending this morning, the monsoon has been vigorous
over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and active over Assam,
Meghalaya and Kerala.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Guchol, the latest monsoon tormentor raging in the
northwest Pacific, is now expected to intensify as a super typhoon as
early as tomorrow.
It has already ratcheted up to category-3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson
scale that classifies storms to a class-topping category-5 in terms of
intensity.
All forecast models now agree that ‘Guchol’ would peak to category-4 strength (super typhoon) by tomorrow.
It is headed for central Japan with capital Tokyo in its line of sight,
but would have weakened into category-2 by Monday when it strikes the
metropolis or neigbourhood, forecasts suggest.
‘Guchol’s’ peaking intensity and power means incremental moisture that
would normally go to feed the Indian monsoon would be spirited away
across the equator into the typhoon.
The sweep of the flows generated by Guchol’s brute strength would not
allow any intervening circulations to drop anchor in the Bay of Bengal
and steer the monsoon flows towards east India.
Such a system could hopefully develop only on weakening of the typhoon; in fact one such is expected to shape early next week.
And that is the earliest window of opportunity for the monsoon to
entrench presence in the northwest Bay of Bengal and onward into the
east and east-central regions of India.
Till such time, the monsoon is expected to be present along the west
coast and the northeast of India where it has already made its onset.
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