An important shift in short term climate
patterns is underway. The strong La Nina that over the past two years
contributed to massive flooding in Australia, a food crisis in the Pacific Islands, and the catastrophic Horn of Africa drought is finally subsiding.
There may be indicators that the shift from La Nina to “ENSO
Neutral” to El Nino conditions is possible by year’s end. Just last
week, parts of the Hawaiian Islands endured nearly 35 inches of rain,
landslides, and tornadoes – prompting AccuWeather.com meteorologist
Henry Margusity to suggest “What is going on in Hawaii is a symptom of the change from La Niña to El Niño coming on.”
For the potentially cataclysmic food shortage in Africa’s Sahel,
this may have major implications. Unlike, say, Australasia and the Horn
of Africa, La Nina and El Nino’s influence on the Sahel is more
nebulous. However, scientific consensus is that it does play some sort of role. Generally speaking, at the beginning of La Nina cycles, the Sahel and West Africa tend to be wetter. We are far from that scenario now as La Nina is in a weakening mode. Some research points to certain months in El Nino patterns favoring hotter, drier conditions in the Sahel. Other evidence points to warming tropical Atlantic waters near equatorial Africa as
the major driver of hot, drought-inducing conditions across the region.
Although complex, there is little evidence to suggest that El Nino
would be a help to the crisis, and more indications that it would play a
more nefarious role.
Last week, Oxfam International launched a bold appeal for the Sahel emergency. "Drought, high food prices, entrenched poverty and regional conflict"
are cited as factors cited in exacerbating this cross-border complex
emergency. As the appeal was launched, Oxfam Regional Director for West
Africa, Mamadou Biteye, cautioned the international community for its
complacency. In the coming months, if the current La Nina becomes an El
Nino that further exacerbates drought in the Sahel, any lingering
complacency may quickly transform to a sense of rapidly escalating
catastrophe.
Written by Mehmet Burk@Interaction.org
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